JPMorgan lifts Tesco price target, places stock on 'positive catalyst watch'

JPMorgan Cazenove placed Tesco Plc   Follow on 'positive catalyst watch' on Monday ahead of first-half results next month, as it lifted the price target to 450p from 400p and reiterated its 'overweight' rating.
"We have been pretty consistent with our thesis , based on three premises: (i) Rational backdrop, (ii) substantial capital returns, and (iii) an appealing set-up on the stock (earnings & valuation upside risk)," the bank said.

"We view these arguments as ongoing and reflect the solid momentum in our near- to medium-term expectations."

JPM said it was upgrading first-half estimates by 17%, FY26 by 7% and FY27 onwards by an average 4%, sitting "comfortably" above guidance.

"We now sit circa 10% above the midpoint of company guidance for group adjusted operating profit (JPMe £3.2bn versus range £2.7-3bn)," it said.

"In our view, the company is unlikely to raise guidance with the 1H26 print in order to retain flexibility to address potential heightened competition (though all signs so far confirm an unchanged status quo within Asda and discounters).

"However, we do believe the company may narrow the guidance range with this update towards the upper-end, triggering consensus upgrades."

At 1130 BST, the shares were up 2.1% at 431.50p.